Marvel’s Thunderbolts is set to storm theaters on May 2, 2025, bringing a team of antiheroes to the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) in a bold, action-packed adventure. With stars like Florence Pugh, Sebastian Stan, and David Harbour leading the charge, fans are eager to see how this unique ensemble fares at the box office. Since the film hasn’t released yet, let’s explore the early box office projections, compare them to other MCU hits, and unpack what might shape its financial fate—all in a clear and engaging way.
Early Box Office Projections: A Modest MCU Kickoff
Industry tracking suggests Thunderbolts could open with $63 million to $77 million domestically, averaging around $70 million for its debut weekend. Globally, the film is eyeing an opening of $160 million to $175 million. These numbers come against a reported production budget of $180 million, meaning the movie will need to hustle to turn a profit once marketing costs are factored in.
For an MCU summer release, these figures are softer than fans might expect. Take Deadpool & Wolverine (July 2024), which exploded with a $211 million domestic opening, or even Captain America: Brave New World (February 2025), which pulled in $88.8 million over its first three days. Still, Thunderbolts isn’t aiming to compete with the MCU’s heavy hitters—it’s carving its own path with a less conventional crew.
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How Does Thunderbolts Compare?
To put these MCU movie projections in context, let’s stack Thunderbolts against some recent Marvel releases:
- Eternals (2021): Opened with $71.2 million domestically, ending at $400 million worldwide.
- The Marvels (2023): Debuted at $46.1 million, limping to $206 million globally.
- Captain America: Brave New World (2025): Started at $88.8 million, showing strength outside the summer season.
If Thunderbolts lands near its $70 million domestic target, it’ll outpace The Marvels but fall short of Brave New World. Globally, its $160 million to $175 million opening suggests a trajectory closer to Eternals—solid, but not spectacular. To break even, Marvel movie earnings for Thunderbolts will likely need to hit $400 million worldwide, a reachable goal if it plays its cards right.
What’s Driving the Numbers?
Several factors could make or break the Thunderbolts box office:
- The Antihero Angle: The plot follows Yelena Belova, Bucky Barnes, and others trapped in a high-stakes mission—a darker, edgier vibe than the MCU’s usual heroics. This could draw curious viewers or alienate those craving classic Avengers energy.
- Star Power: Florence Pugh’s rising fame and Sebastian Stan’s Winter Soldier fanbase are big draws, but the team lacks the instant recognition of a Thor or Iron Man.
- Timing: Releasing on May 2, 2025, Thunderbolts has a clear runway until mid-May competition heats up. A strong opening could give it legs.
- MCU Fatigue: After mixed results from recent films like The Marvels, some fans are skeptical. Positive buzz from test screenings could turn the tide.
The marketing push in the final weeks will be crucial. A standout trailer or tie-in—like a nod to 2026’s Avengers: Doomsday—could boost the Thunderbolts opening weekend beyond projections.
Can Thunderbolts Beat the Odds?
While its current projections don’t scream “record-breaker,” Thunderbolts has a shot at exceeding expectations. A $70 million domestic start would top last year’s summer opener The Fall Guy ($27.7 million) and hold its own against non-MCU blockbusters. If reviews praise its action-comedy mix and the cast delivers, word-of-mouth could push it past the $400 million global mark.
In short, Thunderbolts might not rewrite the MCU playbook, but it’s poised for a respectable run. Will this misfit squad surprise us all? We’ll find out when the box office tallies roll in.
